Japan changes the game: inflation below 1%!

A significant change is emerging in the Japanese economic landscape. Wholesale inflation, a key indicator of economic health, has shown a marked slowdown, dropping below 1% for the first time in over two and a half years in October 2020. This phenomenon not only marks a crucial moment in the Japanese economy but also raises questions about the future dynamics of inflation and monetary policies globally.

According to analysts, this inflation slowdown could be the result of a combination of factors, including the decrease in commodity and energy costs, as well as the effect of government subsidies aimed at reducing gasoline and household utility bills. These dynamics are in line with the projections of the Bank of Japan, which expects a decline in inflationary pressures related to costs, with increasing attention to the role that wages and household expenses will play in generating demand-driven consumer price increases.

The Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI), which measures the prices that companies charge each other for goods and services, showed a 0.8% increase in October compared to the previous year, slightly lower than the market’s forecast of a 0.9% increase. This modest increase signals a significant slowdown from the 2.2% rise recorded in September. It is the tenth consecutive month of slowing wholesale inflation, with an annual growth rate below 1% for the first time since February 2021.

This slowdown can be attributed to a decline in wood, chemical, and steel prices, reflecting the impact of reduced global commodity costs. These dynamics have led many Japanese companies to pass on higher costs to households, a trend that has prompted the Bank of Japan to update its inflation forecasts in the quarterly projections released in October.

The Bank of Japan has stated that cost-induced inflation will taper off and needs to be replaced by price increases more focused on robust domestic demand in order to consider the end of ultra-low interest rates. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that Japan is progressing towards the sustainable achievement of the bank’s 2% target, signaling that conditions for exiting ultra-expansionary monetary policy are gradually taking shape.

This slowdown in wholesale inflation in Japan is a phenomenon that deserves attention not only nationally but also internationally. It represents a signal to the global economies about the possibility of a change in the global inflation cycle, especially in a context where many nations are still grappling with the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and its residual effects on the economy.

The case of Japan offers a window into global economic dynamics and monetary policies. As the country approaches the end of the fiscal year in March 2024, the eyes of economists and policymakers around the world will remain focused on how Japan will manage this phase of economic transition, and what lessons can be learned for other evolving economies.